Senate Majority Up For Grabs

While most of the attention is focused on the Presidential race, control of the Senate is also up for grabs in November and may have a significant impact on the way Washington works for the next two years.  The result of these Senate races would affect issues that affect counselors to a great degree. 

At the moment, the polling on Senate races indicates that the Democrats have a 68 percent chance of gaining control of the Senate, and the most likely outcome is a Democratic majority by one seat, 51-49 (a 15.5 percent chance).  The next most likely outcome is a 50-50 tie at 15.2 percent.  This would make life interesting in the Senate, with the tie going to the Democrats because Democrat Tim Kaine is likely to be the Vice President, according to the polls, and he would preside over the Senate and cast deciding votes when necessary.  The third most likely outcome is a 52-48 Democratic majority at 14.8 percent.  A tie in the Senate or a 51-49 split would set up an epic battle in Virginia for Kaine’s seat after he resigns to assume the Vice Presidency. 

These estimates come from fivethirtyeight.com, which analyzes polling numbers, adjusts for the previous accuracy of the pollster and other factors, and makes educated predictions.  Other sites do the same thing, but fivethirtyeight is known for predicting the last Presidential election almost exactly.  (538 is the number of electors in the electoral college.)  There are certainly paths to a Republican Senate majority as well.  The six states that seem most likely to decide the majority are New Hampshire, Indiana, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Missouri, and Nevada.   

Control of the Senate does not mean that you can pass whatever bills your party prefers. The threat of a filibuster on any given bill means you need 60 votes to bring up a bill for consideration in the Senate because 60 votes blocks a filibuster from happening.  Support from some members of both parties is always necessary to get to 60 votes.  Once a bill has been brought up however, you need a simple majority to pass it.  Being in the majority does let that party set the agenda by deciding what bills will and won’t be brought up for consideration on the Senate floor and in committees. 

More broadly, a Democratic Senate and a Republican House would make compromising an inevitable part of passing legislation, and this would be good for the interests of counselors.  Both the Senate and the House would know at the outset that they will ultimately have to consider the interests and priorities of the other side.  This could lead to less of a logjam in Congress.  Bills like the Mental Health Reform Act, and Medicare reimbursement for counselors along with it, would have a clearer path to passage and a Presidential signature.  Spending bills that fund school counseling and veterans programs have traditionally fared better with Democratic support.  Healthcare too. 

This far from November 8^th, the polls will certainly change and a Democratic Senate majority is far from a sure thing.  If the Republicans end up with 51 or more seats (they currently have 54) and Secretary Clinton wins, we will essentially have the status quo, a Republican Congress and a Democrat in the White House.  This outcome would mean we at ACA would continue to work with Republicans and Democrats on our priorities and hope to build on this years’ efforts in the next Congress.